Tuesday, July 7, 2009

How do you pick’em?

July 7, 2009 - Hugh recently related to me a conversation he had with Dave B. Hugh asked Dave how he went about making his picks. As we all know, Dave is the winningest player in the pool. Not only does he have the most cash winnings, but also the most career tournament wins (14) and the most finishes in the money (31). Dave has cashed in almost one of every three events he has entered. And he took off the spring season of 2007. That’s right, just decided to not play half the year. I think he said he wanted to get his gambling problem under control, or something like that. Someone should have told him, HEY DAVE, IT’S NOT A PROBLEM IF YOU ARE WINNING!

Truthfully, Dave does not and did not have a gambling problem. That was a joke. Please no lawsuits. If I remember correctly he said he had just O.D.’d on fantasy sports leagues and wanted a break. He came back in the summer of ’07 and cashed once that season, 2nd place in the P.G.A. Then in 2008 he cashed a record 10 times. He’s made the money 6 times this year. Out of the last 30 tournaments he’s finished in the money in 16 of them, 5 of those being wins. In the 14 player golf pool world, those are Tiger-like stats. And Hugh is trying to find out how this player on a serious two year heater thinks... Yea, I’m interested. I want to know.

How does this Rule 20-6 Golf Pool legend make his picks: “Oh hell, I usually don’t remember we’re playing until late the night before and I just read down the list of golfers and pick who looks good.” Fuck you Dave. Nobody’s that lucky. I think he has at least three interlinked pc’s calculating information from thousands of sources, from the PGA Tour to the Euro Tour to a hidden webcam in Tiger’s bedroom. He has inside sources at each tour stop. Probably sends Christmas presents to all the caddies. Oh yea, you’re not that damn lucky. You got your ways. We’re on to you.

I am second to Dave in all-time money winnings. I have the second best percentage of finishing in the money and have the best percentage of golfers picked making the cut. I must be doing something right. Unlike Dave, I will tell you the truth about how I make my picks.

I have used a couple methods over the last 5 ½ years. The first year or two I looked primarily at what the golfers had done the weeks leading up to the tournament. I’d go back two or three weeks and look at the leaderboards on PGATour.com and see who was hot and who I felt might be “ready to get hot.” I had pretty good success with that but lots of 2nd’s and not many wins. Then I started looking more at the World Golf Rankings. In fact in several tournaments in late 2005 and 2006 I picked the top 7 players in the W.G.R. playing in that week’s event. I developed an Excel spreadsheet where I copy in the field list and the top 200 or 300 W.G.R. golfers and the sheet spits out the golfers in the field with their ranking. When I was busy with work this was a quick way to pick my team; took about 5-10 minutes.

That worked pretty well until the “young guns” started moving up the Rankings list and the “old” guys started dropping. Then I quit even sniffing the money. To adjust, I combined my old method with the newer one. I still run the field list/WGR spreadsheet, but I also look at the last couple of tournaments. And I like to see the last couple of year’s results from the tournament I’m picking for, if it is held on the same course. Horses for courses, you know. Then I combine who I think is hot with who’s ranked highest.

I try to avoid erratic golfers, guys who win one week and then miss the cut the next three. Actually anyone who misses a lot of cuts is tough for me to pull the trigger on. It seems whenever I try a long-shot he misses the cut. If it weren’t for bad luck I’d have no luck at all… I try not to quote Junior Samples very often either.

And I have not, nor will I ever, pick Michelle Wie. Not everyone in this pool can say that.

I try not to watch the Golf Channel, they seem to only confuse me and make me make bad picks. I watch ESPN to know that I should pick Tiger (do they know there are other golfers playing?).

Overall, I guess that’s a pretty conservative way to do it. I’ve had some success with it, but lately it has only kept me out of last place and not all that close to the money. You would think this method would work in the majors, but it hasn’t. I’ve won only one major and that was the first one we played, the 2004 Masters; 0 for 21 since.

I let my secrets out. Well, maybe not all of them, but a lot more than that fucking liar Dave. Anyone else want to tell how they make their picks? Any unique methods or is everyone just winging it? Any good sources of information anyone would like to share? Post a comment or send me some copy and I’ll post it as an entry. Or if you want to post yourself I’ll send the password.

Later, jns

My usual sources when making picks:

The home site for the tournament, especially majors, listed in the Rule20-6.com schedule.

RSS feeds:

1 comment:

  1. I feel I can finally respond now that I've gotten lucky again. Smitty I would like to thank you for putting the jinx on me. I would like to pawn it off on knee surgery which affected my stance so I couldn't quite hit the keys I was trying to hit.

    Truth be told I do have a web cam in
    tiger's bedroom but that is not for checking in on or listening to Tiger. There are other people in the bedroom much interestiing to keep an eye on.

    The real truth is I look at the field and try to pick 5 of the top golfers in the field, not by world ranking but by mascots of their alma mater. Really I just try to pick 5 of the best in the world based on who seems to be playing well. If they have had 4-5 weeks near the top then they are due for a missed cut so I may avoid them. Then I pick 2 golfers who I think are hot or getting hot. This is where the luck comes into play. I try to pick these players based on my intuition they may be a unique or close to a unique aka D. Johnson this week. I do not even get the golf channel(maybe a good thing for die hard gamblers). Occaisional if I'm confused for my last 2 picks I will check the pgatour.com site and click on sleepers just for some names. There thats it. It takes about 5 minutes at the most to do this and lots of luck and several voodoo dolls. Goosen's doll is very affective. Dave